Professor McDaniel Analyzes Results of San Francisco Mayoral Election

MISSION LOCAL (SAN FRANCISCO) -- Glancing at these numbers, San Francisco State Political Science Professor Jason McDaniel posits the following thoughts: A. That’s a lotta ballots; B. That’s enough ballots to change the outcome of the election; C. The provisionals will likely resemble election-day patterns, which favor Leno.

“The outcome of this election hinges on whether the distribution of second and third choices on the outstanding vote-by-mail ballots will look enough like the vote-by-mail ballots already counted to erase Leno’s lead,” McDaniel says. “It’s impossible to say at the moment. The margin is close enough that if the distribution is even slightly less pro-Kim/Leno than the election day ballots, then Breed may come out ahead.”