SAN FRANCISCO MAGAZINE -- But which of these three has the best chance at winning? “Given the racial and ideological dynamics, Mark Leno is the front runner,” says Jason McDaniel, professor of Political Science at San Francisco State University. He compares June’s election to the one in 2003 in which Green Party member Matt Gonzalez lost a ”very, very close” race to Gavin Newsom, then the president of the board of supervisors. (Coincidentally, Alioto ran in that race, too.)
Rich DeLeon, an emeritus professor of Political Science at San Francisco State University, thinks the ranked-choice voting system may have a significant impact on the results.
Barring the emergence of some kind of local 'wave'-instigating issue,” he said, “voters will likely be all over the map responding to cross-pressuring appeals to their interests, identities, and ideologies; which makes me think this mayoral election, especially, will be made to order for ranked-choice voting.”